Chiefs Playoff Preview, Part II

I've got some last free moments to pound out a preview about the Chiefs chances on the field for next Sunday at 12:05 CST when we take on either the Steelers, Raiders, or Texans. I wanted to take care of this now because after today we've got visits with more family then it's back to 10-hour days at work on Monday. We'll know which team we'll be facing this weekend, but this preview is mostly about the Chiefs.

My last post was the current rendition of my treatise that the Chiefs have a greater challenge simply being up against those who work to keep them from extended success, namely the NFL and media business interests themselves! I'm including a screen shot of the attitude among the media toadies that reflects this very truth. Look at the headline for the featured video. Do you really think they'd say that about the Packers or Giants or Steelers? "What a surprise, these Chiefs! We know no one cares about them, but here they are!"

But again, that's what makes being a Chiefs fan worth it. The only winning that counts is that done with the talent, coaching, teamwork, smarts, character, and fortitude -- not by having the most fans, largest television contract, or favored graces of ivory tower dwellers.

We win, and we've done it authentically, not just against the teams on the field but against those elements. So yeah, we've got our work cut out for us. We have a more Herculean effort in front of us, we've got to really really win to make the statement. That's cool, let's show 'em what we're about.

Some of the things I've been thinking this week.

First, remember that horrific loss against Denver, the second game of the season at home last year? Yeah, who could forget. We're up 24-17 with a minute left and before you could blink we're down 31-24, ball game over. I'd blogged that it was a tough loss but a good one because it'd make us tougher, then I thought for a while I'd have to eat my words because we'd gone on the lose the next four games too.

I've been thinking for some time now that stretch did toughen up the Chiefs as much as I thought it would.

A while before that Denver game I'd made note that we'd been stinking against AFC West teams, for years we'd just been doing crappy against the teams in our own division. Then that Denver debacle -- would things ever change?

But guess what.

Since then we're 11-0 against the teams in the AFC West, can you believe it? This year a remarkable 6-0. Remember when we all got an inkling that John Dorsey was laboriously arranging the team specifically with success in the division in mind? To secure areas like the pass rush to challenge the Phillip Riverses and Peyton Mannings and of course now the Derek Carrs, who, at least so far, the Chiefs have owned.

Since the Minnesota game of last season, the last of that terrible stretch of early losses, the Chiefs have the best record in the NFL over that span of games. The numbers graphics they put up on the television have shown this, so it's nice we're getting recognized for our successes.

I noticed too this is the first time we'd ever finished a season 12-4. Maybe that's a good thing because the three times we finished 13-3 and got a bye and a home game, we... well, you know what happened each time. On the other hand there was one other time we got 12 wins in a season: in 1968 we finished 12-2 but then got shellacked by the Raiders in the playoffs.

So then, what about this year?

The little that I've heard from the punditry is that this Chiefs team is different, and I can see why. We're far more balanced across the board in every area -- I've heard a number of times people say the Chiefs have no glaring deficiencies. I also happened to come across a stat that showed how "battle-tested" we are, consistently beating teams with good quarterbacks. That's a good sign too.

Here are the keys in my opinion. I'll start with the troubling things that are truly concerns. In order of importance:

1. Our run defense. Losing Derrick Johnson really hurt us in this area, I think we all know that. Ramik Wilson has played okay, but we've got to hope a returning Justin March-Lillard will step it up with fresh legs. We also need Justin Houston at full strength. Should we face Pittsburgh in the first round, which seems likely, we'll have to play beyond ourselves here if we hope to stop Le'Veon Bell.

2. The cold. Yes, I truly think this will be factor if Arrowhead is 0 degrees at game time next Sunday. This season we should've hammered Tennessee at home, but the temps were well below freezing and I really believe that hurt us. Need I bring up what happened in 1995 when we should've cruised past Indianapolis? Sure enough, the game was one of the coldest in NFL history. The good thing about this is if Mother Nature is kind and it isn't that cold, then this concern disappears altogether.

3. Our 3rd down efficiency. We were miserable in this area all year, especially in the second halves of games and especially on 3rd-&-long. We seemed to have solved this problem in that last game against San Diego, but will we keep it up against a ferocious playoff team, especially one like Houston who I'm told has the No. 1 defense in the NFL. We suffered our 2nd worst loss of the year against them very early in the season.

4. Relying too much on turnovers. I like we're a team that is extraordinarily opportunistic, indeed Bob Sutton actually coaches our guys to go after that football, literally coaching the technique. That's just awesome, and it does show on the football field.  But it is simply my consideration that winning playoff football requires much more steady, play-to-play defensive rigidity, and that starts simply by stopping the run consistently, by getting them to have issues on 3rd down.

5. Injuries. The jury is still out on whether Justin Houston will be back at full strength. Seriously, if he is, our chances of going deep into the playoffs go up exponentially. Last year not having him in there against New England was our -- with apologies to D.J. -- Achilles heel. Again, the Patriots could not run the ball, yet Tom Brady still carved us up because we had no pass rush. Or will it be like it was three years ago in Indianapolis when in a single game our key players were going down like flies?

Watch for these things. If we can overcome them, we win, hands down.

We've also got these key things going for us, in what I think is the order of importance.

1. Travis, Tyreek, and Alex. This is by far the most important factor in our winning. We've already delightfully beheld the game-changing impact of Travis and Tyreek, but I've included Alex Smith in the mix here because, really, when you think about it, he's got to get the ball to those guys, and let's face it, he's been doing it exceptionally well. Credit Andy Reid too, he's been getting Alex to get the ball to those two, and it's really nice to know Reid is a fine play-caller and has at his disposal other terrific offensive weapons like Jeremy Maclin, Spencer Ware, and of course Dontari Poe (big smiley emoji).

2. John Dorsey. Huh? Why's he here at No. 2? Sure we can talk about his fine drafting and building this team, but the main on-the-field reason he is here is because of the amazing depth the Chiefs have. Yeah, put way up here at the No. 2 factor is our deep roster. Dorsey has been making personnel moves like a magician, finding and slotting guys who are coming through. Our defensive front seven has been practically completely turned over, and we're still holding our own. Our defensive backfield is as green as it could be, yet Dorsey's found guys like Terrance Mitchell to come in and nicely complement our All-Pros Eric Berry and Marcus Peters.

3. Eric Berry et al. While our defensive backfield has been one of our pleasant strengths, the "et al" here refers to the leadership personnel that permeates this team. This team is filled with genuine leaders, guys who expect a lot from one another but are encouragers, and there aren't too many, not too many "cooks in the kitchen", that's good. We've got just enough to keep all the other players performing at a high level. Guys like Berry and also Jeremy Maclin, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, among others. There are also coaches too, and you could start with Andy Reid who has that wonderful balance of tough and amicable, high expectations to go with open trusted interactions.

4. Dave Toub. I think we have to emphasize that our fine special teams play is critical to our success. Toub is easily respected as one of the best and it shows. Think about our kick return proficiency, and it isn't just Tyreek. De'Anthony Thomas has done well here too. Think about our punting game with Dustin Colquitt still pinning teams deep in their own end, and our kick coverage which has been reliably stifling. Think about the field position game that special teams establish, the Chiefs have always been exceptional with getting favorable field position.

5. Turnover efficiency. While I'm nervous about relying on turnovers, we can't deny that a single critical turnover often means the entire ball game. But it isn't just the defense getting turnovers, it is the offense keeping them from happening. Think about it, the Chiefs could easily be 14-2 if it wasn't for two games when Alex Smith uncharacteristically threw a pick in the end zone in each one (Tampa Bay and Tennessee). Point is those were unusual instances and Alex Smith knew about them. In the playoffs look for him to continue to be a strong game manager doing well protecting the football.

Speaking of Alex Smith, he's also started to get loose running the ball when downfield pass routes don't open up. Yes we all know he could still wait a tick longer for that one route to get clean, but he's actually been doing that more too. Running when he needs to and waiting an extra tick to get off that nice pass are things he has been doing more lately.

And another thing about Alex. In his playoff experience, if you look at it, he has actually played pretty damn well. That New Orleans game in 2011, a thing of beauty. The horrific Indianapolis game in 2013, he was terrific, he really was. The New England game last year? Poor coaching decisions, injuries, penalties, a critical fumble -- these had nothing to do with Alex Smith who was, yeah, really pretty good.

Here's what it comes down to. If it were all up to the team, we beat anyone we play against, even New England. I really don't know anything about New England except that they have Tom Brady, and it is a formidable task should we get that far. Well, that's for later.

A team like Pittsburgh? All I know is they have three of the best players in the NFL, Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. They're killers, yes, but what about the rest of the team? Do they have such glaring deficiencies in other areas that our much more balanced team should exploit them and get that well-deserved win?

It always seems to come down to that one charmed play for one team. And yes, regrettably, painfully regrettably...

The Chiefs have rarely had that play go for them in postseason play.

Remember last year against the Patriots? We're down 27-20 late and need the ball back, we still have time to score. Patriots need a first down. Brady throws a pass and it's tipped! In a nanosecond we have hope rising up in our souls. 97% of the time that drops incomplete or its picked. Visions of Marcus Peters swooping under it and taking it to the house to tie it, dancing in our heads!

For a nanosecond.

Turns out the tipped pass is actually caught by one of their receivers. First down. Game over.

How many times does this happen to the Chiefs.

Thing is, remember the one charmed play that went our way? Really, it is easy to wallow in horrific-playoff-opponent's-charmed-play-to-win-the-game after horrific-playoff-opponent's-charmed-play-to-win-the-game. There are so many, and believe me, I have. I've wallowed until I'm raw, wallowing.

But remember the one single charmed playoff play that went for us? There was one, only one, but we had it. And I'm talking about since the merger, since our Super Bowl in January 1970 -- I'm talking about during the excruciating disconsolation of a 4-14 playoff record from then to now, 46 years worth.

Remember that charmed play for us in that mess? It was at home, January 1994, against Pittsburgh.

Do you remember the play?

Steelers ahead by seven late, and they're punting. Fred Jones swoops in and blocks the punt. Not only that but he picks it up and runs deep into Steelers territory, setting up Joe Montana to connect with Tim Barnett, sending the game into overtime when we win it.

A wonderfully splendid charmed play, and while all that does take skill to make it happen, you're still facing other just-as-skilled players so in that sense it was a good charmed thing to happen for us. In games with lots of skilled players smashing into one another, it does often come down to who gets the charmed play.

A good sign for today is that the Chiefs won the charmed-play game several times this regular season. Remember? There was the great San Diego comeback to start the season, there was the Carolina comeback after being down 17-3, there was the marvelous Denver game when we got the very charmed field goal bounce off the upright, there was the Atlanta game when the Chiefs were down by a point late and MVP candidate Matt Ryan threw a two-point conversion pass that was picked by Berry and returned to give the Chiefs the one-point win.

Yes, I don't disagree that all these charmed things happened because the team was prepared and skilled and played well enough to make them happen. I'm all for that.

Here's to Chiefs talent and coaching and teamwork and smarts and character and fortitude getting the Chiefs playoff wins.
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