I've decided that my life will be much better if I jettison something that has been a thread running through my Chiefs fan life and my Chiefs blogging here:
I expect the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl OR ELSE!
Well, how far has that gotten me? Every time I see a past year's highlight of the Chiefs doing great things all I can think is "Oh, yeah, that was the year we lost to ___ in the playoffs, so what of it?" It has gotten to the point where I cannot appreciate the great things they do, like all the wonderful plays they had last year on the way to a division title, which included sweeping all their division opponents (Den, Oak, SD).
See, that's pretty awesome. I've decided I'm going to revel in Chiefs achievements by the moment, and let it be. Very nice.
Now I understand most Chiefs fans -- or any wise mature fan for that matter -- do that anyway, I got that. And I understand everybody wants their team to win it all, there's nothing wrong with that, I got that too. I'm ohh-kay, thanks for your concern.
But the letting it be regular season approach applies most strikingly because this is the Chiefs -- one of four teams existing since the merger in 1970 to have never appeared in a Super Bowl (Jets, Lions, Browns the others). Sure they'd won the Super Bowl the season just previous to that, that's cool.
Still. This is a team that simply cannot win once it gets into the postseason. Every time they make an appearance they notoriously go through a kryptonite portal when all their weaknesses get amplified and strengths disappear. Yeah, you know.
And they're the reverse of clutch. Sure we beat the Texans in '15 -- finally a playoff win! But we beat them 30-0 -- not complaining mind you. But since our Super Bowl win in '69 we've played ten postseason games decided by a touchdown or less and lost eight of them (the wins: Oak '91 Pit '93), including the last six such games in a row -- here they are for all the ugliness: Pit '16 (by 2) NE '15 (by 7) Ind '13 (by 1) Ind '03 (by 7) Den '97 (by 4) Ind '95 (by 3).
It is pretty standard that for a Chiefs fan to watch a close postseason game it requires experiencing maddening heart-ripping disconsolation. You know, Chiefs fan, you know.
Oh Dave WHY do you start a post about the most promising team in Chiefs history with this?
It is because I don't think this team is the most promising in Chiefs history. We all know that team is a couple years away when FINALLY FINALLY FINALLY we will have a drafted and developed quarterback running the show. You do know that this upcoming September 13 will be the 30th anniversary of the Chiefs last win from a D&D QB -- THE THIRTIETH ANNIVERSARY. All the NFL openers for this year will have been played by that date and guess what, most of the teams that won will have won with a quarterback they drafted and developed as most all of them have for the past 30 years for any game they won.
(Here's a link to the Jon Bois piece from three years ago that graphically demonstrates this abomination. I wonder what it looks like now, updated? Please note, it isn't any different for the Chiefs.) (And for those of you who don't know why this is so meaningful, who haven't beheld The Quarterback Project, here is a link to that.)
Of course a couple years from now we'll be looking for great things from D&soon-to-be-D'ed Pat Mahomes, who has looked spectacular through his crazy rawness in preseason games. But for now, we're going with non-Chiefs-D&D Alex Smith, who is famously the third winningest regular season quarterback over the past four Andy Reid years.
Yes, there are people clamoring for Pat Mahomes to start right now. Wrong wrong wrong move. He still has a ton to learn and he's been playing mostly against second string exhibition game squads. I do think he's up to learning, that's awesome, we all have seen he catches on fast and has got the tools and, you know what? -- He's shown he's got good decision-making instincts. Every Chiefs fan is excited for Pat Mahomes.
Meanwhile the love-hate relationship continues for Alex Smith. You know what it's like.
Love - He's really smart and manages the game extraordinarily well. Hate - He won't or even can't throw the ball down the field (aren't you salivating over a good refined Pat Mahomes regularly throwing to Tyreek Hill? Ahhhhh... [note the drool at the side of my mouth])
Love - He proficiently executes a complicated Andy Reid offensive scheme. Hate - He loses track of receivers breaking wide-open way too often.
Love - He's mobile as all get-out and opens things up with his legs. Hate - He doesn't go through his progressions well enough to avoid getting sacked.
Love - He makes splendidly amazing throws in tight windows. Hate - He makes inexplicably wretched throws to wide open receivers.
Love - He gets those quick wide-out screens going to our playmakers and they get pretty decent yardage from them. Hate - Because he can't throw the ball down the field we must run those plays far too frequently anyway, which keeps defenses crowding the line, limiting what our offense can do.
Are there more? You can probably think of a few, and no matter what there's one thing about them -- they drive you crazy. Crazy great one moment, then crazy soul-crushing the next.
Now, yeah, I know. Every team has quarterbacks like that. No, nah, they don't. Yes we can be very fortunate we've got Alex Smith, and please don't get me wrong, I do believe Smith's abilities can get us to the promised land. But there is always that thought that one time in the postseason something stupid is going to happen that'll kill us.
It's happened far too often. Whether it's Alex Smith doing something that messes us up or any typically stupid thing happens to mess us up, it's just going to happen.
At least that's the attitude. No, it isn't defeatist, it isn't fatalistic, and I'm not even going to spout that it's realistic to cover myself trying to make my skepticism more noble or anything, all I'm saying is my approach to this year is merely to enjoy what we do regular season, that's all. Just let Chiefs good things be. And I am wildly hoping that I am so wrong wrong wrong about the regular season-beyond -- please join in my rooting for me to be wrong.
As it is, what are the realistic expectation for the Chiefs 2017? Let's just look at each unit for a bit and see how Super Bowl possible each one is. While I am tempering my expectations, let's just go for broke and look at the possibilities, why not.
Quarterback. Somewhat Super Bowl possible, but then I've already elaborated on that above.
Running back. Not really Super Bowl possible. We lost Spencer Ware to injury and we cut C.J. Spiller. Everyone's thinking about how great it will be to give rookie Kareem Hunt the ball, and sure I'd love to see spectacular things from him, but, well, I have my doubts. I think the Chiefs can do some things here with De'Anthony Thomas. Last year they had Tyreek Hill run plays from the backfield and it was okay actually, they just can't get away with it too much.
Tight end. Really Super Bowl possible. Travis Kelce says it all.
Wide receivers. Mildly Super Bowl possible. That's mainly because of Tyreek, but really, still, what have other teams specifically planned for covering him when the rest of the receiving corps is just not that overwhelming? We cut Jeremy Maclin, Chris Conley is okay and in real need of a break-out year (which we're all hoping happens, for sure). I have no idea why we continue to keep Albert Wilson, he just drops too many passes. Let's hope Demarcus Robinson steps up this year or rookie Jehu Chesson shines for us.
Offensive line. Barely Super Bowl possible. I've heard that this unit is pretty good, but I'm sorry I just don't think so. It was painfully exposed in the Seattle pre-season game, and I know Seattle has a terrific defensive front, but what kind of teams do you think we're going to play in the postseason? We have serious questions at guard especially, and we even had to trade for a tackle just before the season started. They are decent with run blocking but still too inadequate for pass protection against teams with strong pass rushers -- huh, kinda like Denver, Oakland, and San Diego.
Defensive line. Pretty Super Bowl possible. This appears to be one of our strengths. We got a fine replacement for Dontari Poe in Bennie Logan. Chris Jones is a monster and we all can't wait to see him get untracked. We've got guys who can stand up lineman, and this new kid with the eye-chart name, Tanoh Kpassagnon is incredible.
Inside linebackers. Mildly Super Bowl possible. I think people are overrating our linebacking core, also. Derrick Johnson is a legend in Chiefs football, but this will be his 13th year in the league -- for a defensive player that's a lot and he's already had two season-ending achilles injuries. We've shuffled guys around trying to find the right mix. I will say Ramik Wilson has progressed, and this other new kid we drafted, another eye-chart name, Ukeme Eligwe -- he's been earning rave reviews, let's hope he can transfuse himself well into NFL play real quick.
Pass rushers. Somewhat Super Bowl possible. Just because of a healthy Justin Houston here. It'd be much more Super Bowl possible if Tamba Hali could regain his form, but he's already starting the season on the PUP list. Dee Ford still needs to prove himself, that's kind of sad but I'm great with seeing if this'll be a breakout year for him. Until he shows it we'll just have to accept where we're at with this group.
Cornerbacks. Somewhat Super Bowl possible, but again for this unit it is only because we do have a phenomenal play-maker out there, Marcus Peters. I like Steven Nelson a lot, but we've got to have a healthy Terrance Mitchell and we've got to get more consistent play from Phillip Gaines.
Safeties. Mildly Super Bowl possible. You may be saying, "Aagh! What about Eric Berry?" Yeah, I really like Eric Berry, I really do, I've said that a million times and I do mean that. He was rated the 13th best overall player among the NFL Network's top 100 as voted on by the players -- very cool. But I've got to see Berry really truly actually beat a good quarterback in a playoff game before I have any postseason confidence in the guy, sorry. And our other safeties? Daniel Sorenson, Ron Parker -- serviceable, that's fine, but really Super Bowl possible?
Thing is, the special teams alone won't get us to the Super Bowl. Honestly, this team overall is an upper-mid-level team with a realistically modest chance to go deep in the playoffs. I truly believe they are that kind of a team, I do, and while I never look at any preseason prediction stuff, I have heard the Chiefs are these days have routinely ranked in the upper half of any power rankings list.
That's cool, because for now, I'm just going to enjoy each game as it is -- the Super Bowl doesn't even count as far as I'm concerned.
I do like these Chiefs, so I'm just going to let it be. It'll be fun.
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