Chiefs Mid-Season Report - Can This Team Win the Super Bowl?

This past Sunday, the day before that thrilling Chiefs-Rams game, Alex Smith badly broke his leg in his game playing for the Redskins. Every Chiefs fan definitely felt it and many prayed for him. Good thing -- for even though Alex could not get us through the playoffs as we'd have liked, he was a terrific quarterback for us. He had guts, character, and a lot of fine quarterbacking qualities. For every one of the five years he had the helm of our offense, the Chiefs had a winning season.

Here's the thing, this devastating event occurred 33 years to the day after Joe Theismann suffered his notoriously gruesome injury against the Giants on Monday Night Football.

I mention this because some may say it is superstitious when I merely think about the idea that things happen because of unseen spiritual forces. As you know I am a follower of Christ, and I know that I don't know why or how most things happen. I confess I still do think about them. I don't think there was anything to what happened to Alex Smith other than he got crunched by defensive linemen, and I mostly think the NFL should still do more to prevent those kinds of things.

But I still think about the whys and hows of things happening.

And I do so quite a bit regarding whether or not the Chiefs have a shot at a World Championship. I wrote a whole blog series this past winter about what I was thinking after our latest playoff debacle.

The question is quite prominent this year for obvious reasons.

Does this Chiefs team have a real shot at a Super Bowl this year?

One of those superstitious memes infecting all sports fans' psyches is the "cover jinx." This week Patrick Mahomes appeared on both the Sports Illustrated cover and ESPN magazine cover. Does this mean the Chiefs are doomed? I, for one, have never bought into any of that. Back in the winter of 1982 Joe Montana was on every magazine cover (including SI's) and the 49ers still won the Super Bowl. Through the years SI cover figures have been more successful than not.

No, Patrick Mahomes is the real deal. It is all the other stuff I see and think about that derails the Chiefs after Regular Season Game No. 16. And it is that about which I am most concerned.

See, here's my take, for right now. I'm not buying the "this-Chiefs-team-is-different" sales pitch until I see them do things in the postseason that show it, when they can actually take an opponent and demoralize them, even if it means dramatically winning in the last minute simply because we had more got-it.

As you know, the complete opposite has been happening to the Chiefs for eons. It is a bit agonizing: The Chiefs have lost seven straight playoff games decided by a touchdown or less. The Tom Bradys and Ben Roethlisbergers and even Jim Harbaughs and Marcus Mariotas have always had more got-it than the Chiefs and inexplicably defeated much better Chiefs teams. Why? As I've said I've thought and thought and thought about it. Far too interminably than I'd like to admit.

Do I think we don't have a chance then? Of course not. I've always considered, well, maybe this Chiefs squad will be the one that turns it around. Maybe whatever forces affect pro football events will finally favor us.

Thing is, I'm tempering my expectations. On the most basic level it is really hard to win in the NFL (unless you're the Patriots). So many other teams are really good. In fact just look at the AFC right now. I don't pay much attention to it, but I saw the Ravens are using their new quarterback Lamar Jackson to run all over the field and win games for them. The Steelers are just not faltering, with Big Ben and Antonio Brown just lighting it up as always. The Patriots are still formidable. The Colts have Andrew Luck playing great football -- oh wouldn't you like to have to face them again in the playoffs. Houston is playing great, and San Diego is the team in our own division who is playing tremendously good football. Tennessee is playing well, Denver could even present trouble.

But we have Patrick Mahomes! Um, don't forget, Peyton Manning for all his great years in Indianapolis won only one Super Bowl for them, in 2006. Brett Favre for all his greatness with Green Bay won only one for them! In 1996. Drew Brees is still out there, playing great, showing he's one of the best ever -- he's got only one, in 2009.

Here's what I figure. If we have Patrick Mahomes for the next 10 to 15 years, and we can get a Super Bowl win at any time during that period, I'll be happy. Sure I'd like ten of them, and I don't see why we couldn't get quite a few. But then, there's that stuff. Just that annoying stuff that happens that has made the whole postseason experience so miserable. Yes, I hope like crazy that changes, yes... and please, expecting at least one Super Bowl win with all we're up against? I think that's pretty good. And besides, if we get more, then it's gravy. Yes it would be glorious to have a run like the Patriots have had, just the being that good where that can actually happen.

Ah, the joy...

So really, I'm shooting for more like 2020, 2021, in that range. That'd be great. And please know, I'm not dismissing this year at all, and I'm projecting for other years not because our defense is not the best. I actually think our defense is better than people think. (It's our lack of discipline and committing penalties that is my greatest concern!) But our defense? We have young defensive players like Breeland Speaks and Dorian O'Daniel showing what they can do. We still have a fine pass rush in Justin Houston and Dee Ford. Our cover guys can do decently and when Eric Berry comes back our D-backfield will get a big boost.

No, it is very possible for us to win this year, it is, and the main reason is our offense. With all due respect to Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and the rest of our terrific weapons on offense, I wanted to just write with some historical perspective on how phenomenally good our new quarterback has been.

How much more can be said about Patrick Mahomes? I mean, really, do you find yourself wanting to look at or watch or read the latest punditry about him? Thing is, after they've gushed about his latest exploits, then what? What else can be said? We all know about how he was groomed to do the amazing athletic feats he does by playing shortstop, by hanging out with his dad on the field where the Mets played, all that delightful stuff.

We're also treated to how ingeniously Andy Reid has arranged the offense to make the best use of his talents. That SI piece was more about Reid than Mahomes, and one of the more interesting things Reid has said recently is that the college game is five years ahead of the NFL -- it's been more innovative for some time. You can easily see how Reid is leading the way getting some of that splendidly cutting-edge stuff into the Chiefs game.

And Mahomes is delivering.

Here's the history when it comes to the Chiefs, and naturally some of why we are so wonderfully entranced by all this.

We all know Mahomes has 37 touchdown passes so far, through 11 games. I've already mentioned, just looking at the stats, there are only 21 QB seasons of 38 or more, whole entire seasons. Remember back in 1984 when Dan Marino shattered the record with 48? Mahomes is only 11 away from that, with five more games to go. The record, by the way, is 55 (Manning in 2013), and another of those nifty factoids we all love is that Mahomes is promised ketchup for life if he gets to 57. Woo-hoo!

In 12 starts he has 10 wins. For comparison:

The only other drafted and developed Chiefs quarterbacks to have wins in our history are:

Todd Blackledge. He had 13 wins total from 1983 to 1987. This encompasses 24 starts. Yeah, remember he didn't start too often. Just about every time John Mackovic told him "Okay it's time" he'd suck so Bill Kenney would go back in. But look at that, 13 wins. That's pathetic, but why go into it, we know all about it and we've forgiven him, let's face it, a lot because we can appreciate Mahomes so much now. Oh, and Blackledge had 26 touchdown passes for the entire time. Yeah.

Steve Fuller. He also had 13 wins, from 1979 to 1982. This was in 31 starts. I should add that Bill Walsh was scouting Fuller at Clemson when he liked Dwight Clark more watching him catch Fuller's passes. The guy who ended up being quarterback for the 49ers was of course Joe Montana. Do you know what Montana's highest touchdown pass season was? 31. Yeah, you read that right. 31, in 1987.

Mike Livingston. He actually played for quite sometime, and you've got to give the guy major kudos for leading the Chiefs to six wins when Len Dawson was injured during their 1969 Super Bowl year. But after that? Not great. He had a total of 25 wins in his 69 starts after that Super Bowl, on into the woeful mid-to-late 70s.

The amazing Mahomes phenomenon is something that I see as kind of make-up for the brutally long years the Chiefs have slogged along without a D&D quarterback, taking nothing from the Montanas and Greens and Smiths. Remember, the Chiefs went from September 1987 all the way to December 2017 without a single win from a D&D quarterback.

Since then we've had 10 of them.

And yes, they are all attributed to Mahomes as well as his cohort of fine backs and receivers, his strong offensive line (aren't you glad our quarterback is getting some time to do things back there?), and the wildly fun collegiate-style play-calling of Andy Reid.

Is this enough to win a Super Bowl?

Absolutely.

Sometime, yes.

And yes here's to it happening this year.
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(The fine artistic rendering of Mahomes is by ESPN's Sergio Ingravalle.)
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