Those are the numbers. Yes, 13-14-15. These are the numbers that should be the key to the fine Chiefs success everyone is expecting from Kansas City's professional football franchise this year.
If you haven't already got the idea here, these numbers represent the past three seasons of Chiefs football. Even though we have only one playoff win in that time, in each of those three years the Chiefs have had a winning season. Not just average 8-8 type seasons but winning seasons. The worst of them, 2014, we went 9-7 because of critical injuries on our defense suffered in the very first game (Derrick Johnson probably being the most damaging) and just a few crucial breakdowns in games we should have won (San Francisco and Arizona the two that stand out).
What this tells me is that over the past three years Clark Hunt, John Dorsey, and Andy Reid have been successful at building a quality football team, and it appears they are ready to take the next step into the elevated genuine Super Bowl contender class. While I have kept myself from seeing a thing from previews and predictions from the pundits who do these things, I have heard in the distance references to the Chiefs as a team being ranked pretty highly.
Yes, I can't deny that I am with all the other Chiefs fans in being extraordinarily excited about this season. What I believe is a telling indicator of how well a team should play is to look at their drafting from two years before the season. It is those players who should be forming the core of the talent of any football team. So I did, I looked, and here's the list of all those players drafted from 2012 to 2014. They are listed by order of overall draft selection irrespective of which year's draft it was.
Dontari Poe (11-12)
Dee Ford (23-14)
Jeff Allen (44-12)
Travis Kelce (63-13)
Donald Stephenson (74-12)
Phillip Gaines (87-14)
Knile Davis (96-13)
Nico Johnson (99-13)
Devon Wylie (107-12)
De'Anthony Thomas (124-14)
Sanders Commings (134-13)
DeQuan Menzie (146-12)
Aaron Murray (163-14)
Eric Kush (170-13)
Cyrus Gray (182-12)
Zach Fulton (193-14)
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (200-14)
Braden Wilson (204-13)
Mike Catapano (207-13)
Jerome Long (218-12)
Junior Hemingway (238-12)
There they are, all of them. It is obvious that Scott Pioli's last draft was pretty much a bust, the only player worth anything Dontari Poe. Jeff Allen and Donald Stephenson were okay, but they're gone.
The key guys from Dorsey's first two runs, however, are definitely big-time players (in bold above): Eric Fisher, Travis Kelce, Phillip Gaines, De'Anthony Thomas, Zach Fulton, and Laurent Duverney-Tardif.
I understand Gaines still has to be healthy and Thomas has to prove he can last a whole season for them to be fully big-time. As I think about it, you could probably also put Knile Davis in there, but as fast a runner as he is he struggles to find his blocks.
I also note that this does not seem like as many players as it should be. Do other NFL teams have a three year period with this number of authentically promising draft potentialities that is like this? Better? Worse? I don't know. It does seem like there should be more impact players in that mix.
Here's what I see from all this, however. It is that Dorsey means business when it comes to shaping a full roster. He seems to have a keen sense of what to do to get the right players when he must. I mean, tell me, didn't you see this rigor missing with the Pioli's and the Peterson's of the past several years? I sure did. Dorsey's been showing that he not only has the industry but the insight and insistence to be a top notch GM.
To make up for those missing players from that draft he's gotten decent free agents, like Justin March and Albert Wilson. He's also got some studs playing for us both from last year's and this year's draft. From last year Marcus Peters, Mitch Morse, and Chris Conley; from this year Chris Jones, Parker Ehinger, and Tyreek Hill.
Nkay, so, what does it look like for the Chiefs in specific areas? First, the concerns.
Pass rush. With Justin Houston missing the first half of the season, if not more, this is a huge concern. Dee Ford has just not shown he's the guy to get it done off the edge (note that I did not mention him among the big-timers from the 12-13-14 drafts). With the possibility that Tamba Hali may slow a bit because of age, this is even more of an issue. Here's my thought, just a crazy idea from a random blogger: How about moving to a 4-3 and putting Chris Jones on the line? This may give Ford a bit more flexibility about where he can rush, and I did hear somewhere that Ford is improving his run defense.
Run defense. Sure enough, I wonder if we have the linebacking strength outside of D.J. to stop the run. The Chiefs really struggled in this area against Los Angeles and Seattle in the preseason. We won't have Josh Mauga all season, we've just waived Ramik Wilson -- this does not bode well. On the other hand, I think back to the Minnesota game from last year. Yes, it was the last of the losses from that excruciating start to the season last year putting us at 1-5, but do you remember that we stuffed Adrian Peterson cold that day? He could go nowhere. On the other other hand, a colleague at work mentioned (I sometimes get these kinds of unsolicited notices, so, oh well) that the Chiefs said their main concern was their safeties. Yes, there is Eric Berry, but will Ron Parker be as decent as he was last year? And who do we have beyond that without stalwarts like the now-retired Husain Abdullah?
Finishing. Believe it or not, this Chiefs team has done a decent job of finishing games, but that is mostly because they've built modest leads and held. Except, remember last season's Chicago game? We didn't do that. Notable among our successes here was the Cleveland game, but we were facing a very flustered Johnny Manziel who is pretty much now out of football. The key question is how we do when we're six points down with two minutes left and the ball on our own 30. Can we win that ballgame, really, can we? All true Super Bowl contenders do, they just do. I'm going to be very concerned if we don't and all we've got is lots of 'splaining we feel we have to do. Seems like the Chiefs brass in the past have always done far too much 'splaining and not enough crowing about clutch wins.
Okay, enough of the concerns, now to the encouragements.
Offensive line. Last year it was a Chinese fire drill on the O-line. There were, what, 4,293 different O-line combinations? This year it seems we're set. The key question mark is how well Parker Ehinger can hold that left guard spot as a rookie. But dang, getting Mitchell Schwartz at right tackle is a John Dorsey coup. Zach Fulton and Jah Reid are terrific back-ups. The key is the protection they've got to give Alex Smith. I really really really don't want to see Smith ditch his progressions all the time and I think a stronger line will really help with that.
Field position and time of possession. Lest we forget the Chiefs bread and butter. The Chiefs special teams is clearly on the front lines of making these two things happen, but keep in mind that all those people who blab that the Chiefs aren't exciting enough don't get the Chiefs. Andy Reid is ruthlessly methodical, it's one of the things that make him such a good coach. We'll start a series at midfield -- great! -- but then it takes nine plays for us to score -- that's our game. The advantage is it wears down the defense, and I think it is one of the most significant factors that make it so we can hold on to games like we've done these past three years.
Obviously there are other positives like our running backs, and other not-so-positives like our somewhat poor 3rd down conversion ability (yes I too am hoping we don't have to watch Alex try to run for a 3rd down every other time we need one). Questions too, like how effective will Jamaal Charles be when he comes back, and how will two offensive coordinators work?
All of this does have a distinctively different twist to it all, don't you think? Have you discovered that we're raving about our explosive offense, but expressing most of our concerns about our very real potential defensive liabilities? This is why it is refreshing to see our leadership being unabashed about addressing our key needs -- yes Dorsey drafted three defensive backs this year, but at least he means business up there to get the best we can get down here.
It is said that if you can do something really really well -- and handling all these fine teams as we did was something done really really well -- then you can do it again. I see the Chiefs having a tremendous amount of self-confidence this year that starts with the fine work Clark, John, and Andy have been doing.There is no way that can't pay off in a major way. Maybe this year will be the year in which the only number that counts is 51.
As in Super Bowl 51.
And it does look like they're going back to the roman numeral thing.
So yeah, looking at Super Bowl LI. That's a fine number.
_
No comments:
Post a Comment