Thursday, March 15, 2018

The Devastating Hunt, Episode VI

It's about time to make this a wrap. I agree I've gone a bit crazy analyzing Chiefs things especially with regards to the whatever-it-is Hunt, in February and March even! This is the time we're supposed to have downtime from the far-too-often crushing vicissitudes of Chiefs game day activities, but, well, the NFL wants to keep you in a state of year-round optimism about your team's chances.

In fact this is free agency week, with the Chiefs joining every other team scrambling to fill holes. As much as I've lamented the dangers of free agency with particular disdain for the salary cap, the Chiefs have had a chance to pick up a key player or two. Oh I'd so rather keep the good players we already have (has the NFL made its decision to overrule the ridiculous Marcus Peters trade yet? No? ::Sigh::...) But well, here we've truly taken advantage of our shot at getting reasonably decent replacements, so yeah -- there ya go.

We left off last week's post with mention of what I consider the most important cog in the Chiefs Kingdom machine: our brand spankin' new young GM Brett Veach. If he does a fine job of juggling the cap, convincing good players to buy into Chiefs Kingdom wonderfulness so we don't have to overpay them, and evaluating talent to draft and sign those gems to fill spots making the Chiefs a cohesive juggernaut because we'll need it to overcome -- yes I must mention it again -- Hunt.

So far it is looking really good for the Chiefs. Veach has shown that he's got a bead on how to address the current state of the NFL draft-wise and free agency-wise. Right outta the gate he's upgrading in two of the most critical areas of need, not waiting around for a draft pick that has to develop. He's snatched up free agents Sammy Watkins and Anthony Hitchens -- Watkins to give Pat Mahomes a super nice receiving target and Hitchens to fill that void left by Derrick Johnson.

Veach is taking care of business.

As a reminder for those just coming into the blog series (you can also go back and start from the beginning), in short: there are two distinct truths about Chiefs football. One, Clark Hunt leads a team, a traditionally winning team actually, born and raised through a legacy that has been phenomenally beneficial for pro football. Two, Chiefs postseason action has been an interminably excruciating hell.

What is with these two things?

Any Chiefs fan response may be any of a number of things. These are a variety of Chiefs things I think about sometimes -- yes, sometimes, not all the time, as obsessed as I seem I'm really not that bad. I do like to riff on it all in these posts, however. The therapy, you know. And I'm not kidding.

One of those responses, one I have heard once or twice: Should we really care about the Chiefs any more after what we've endured year after year after year? I've recently thought of it this way: Why go through any of this rigmarole when the the only only ONLY thing that matters at all any more is not what our leadership is like or how good our players are or what our game plan is against any particular team at an given time -- you know, the things worth thinking about and talking about and all the rest of it.

No, the only thing left for Chiefs fans is:

Will insanely stupid crazy-ass things NOT happen to the Chiefs in a playoff game?

Just looking at that question makes my innards wrench, it really does. It isn't just because it is so painful but because is it really the case that this is all we have to wait for? Just slogging through a whole regular season to see if the answer to this question isn't yet another wretched heartbreak? Last year I committed to really enjoying the regular season games, just focusing on them, not worrying about the postseason because, well... you know. This approach worked okay -- but that postseason game still arrived. Now I wonder, should I even watch any of the regular season? Nah, I will, and I must steel myself realizing I can't divorce it from what we do ultimately want.

I think the thing farthest on the edge of Chiefs fan thinking is in order to register our disapproval of any and all baaad things causing great Chiefs agony after December particularly in light of the reasonably pertinent ways Hunt or the NFL or whichever dismissive powers-that-be lend themselves to the baaad things, we should all not pay attention to NFL things -- but yeah, that means empty Arrowhead every week. Do those people who vow to just give it all up really mean it?

The scary thing is that I'm sure not-a-few of Chiefs fan have thought this. Let's really make a statement dammit. ::Sigh:: Some have! There have been a few empty seats in Arrowhead, many more this past year than in previous years -- but again I think that is mostly the result of the objections to the racialist political stuff, really.

On the other hand, I believe most in the Chiefs Kingdom are all in for next season, seeing all the great things going for this team. I know most Chiefs fans would read many of my remarks and go, "Dave, what is with you? The only thing that counts is the now. What will happen to all your fancy theorizing if the Chiefs run the table and win the Super Bowl, at any time over the next five or six years? Kaboom!"

Oh I got you. Please, right now as I write I'm making the motion of my two first fingers in a "V" pointing at my eyes then pointing at yours, back and forth. I'm so on board with that. Yeah, I do believe we'll be Super Bowl champions in one or two of these upcoming seasons, I do!

In fact I must right now issue an apology to Andy Reid. As much as I'd ripped on him I have to pull back a bit on something I wrote about in an earlier post in this series. I said that he doesn't take proper responsibility for his failures. Now, he still doesn't make the best in-game adjustments and he still isn't organic enough especially in playoff games, but I was basing my analysis of his refusal to accept his own part in Chiefs failures on a single press conference, the one after the Titans game when anyone would candidly bilge the most visceral frustration.

I'd recently read some things about Reid that I see are more accurate, that he does do a decent job of grasping, and sincerely sharing, the things he knows have to be done to win football games including his own part in that. I mention this because it is indeed one of Andy Reid's strengths, and the players do genuinely appreciate the ways he handles things in the locker room, on the practice field, and on the sideline during games.

I also mention this because I do have some measure of confidence, that because of those strengths, Reid can contribute to overcoming Hunt and join with Veach, our current players, our new players, and, yes, Clark Hunt to comprise a winning postseason team.

One of those weird advantages to having such a devastatingly horrid postseason history is that the Chiefs will be that much more motivated to do what they know they must do. With so much to overcome, there is that much more impetus to make sure things are addressed as they should. In a sense Clark has got to be sick of the postseason insanity, which is why he's solidly behind Reid, he's hired the youthful energetic Veach, and he trusts their reinvigorated decision-making skills to get the Chiefs winning deep into January.

With all this in mind (renewed optimism yay!), I am going to touch a bit on what the Kansas City Chiefs do need to be that kind of team. Here are my priorities in order -- and I made this list back in January so as the whirlwind free agency week progresses we'll see how this looks. I think most Chiefs observers' picks are like mine, but then some of them know more than I do. That's fine. What counts is what Brett and Andy think, and I know they'll get it right.

1. Pass rusher. I do believe this is the biggest priority by far. I often hear some say it is getting a defensive back, but I think getting the pressure up front first is more important. Dee Ford should have filled this need but his health has not been the most reliable. (I've heard they want to keep him around for one last chance here.) Too often this year we were beaten at the line of scrimmage, and for all the crappy things that happened in the Titans game, this was one legitimate area where Tennessee legitimately did beat us. (To add: just a shout-out to Tamba Hali who was just let go -- we all knew, but still. How great was it to have him rushing the passer for the past 12 years.)

2. Big wide receiver. I have always slavered for that strong, lanky, quick wide receiver for, well, almost forever. We had a good one in Otis Taylor, but we've really never had one since, one like, say Anquan Boldin -- that guy was amazing. We all thought we'd get that with Jonathan Baldwin, but, ughh. This need really was addressed in the just-announced acquisition of Sammy Watkins, and from what little I've seen it seems he's been pretty good. I did peek a bit at him: while he's only 6'1" he is strong, fast, gets terrific separation, and tracks well.

3. Cornerback. Losing Marcus Peters puts the hurt on us big-time here, but getting Kendall Fuller in the Alex Smith trade was terrific. I saw that we also picked up David Amerson from the Raiders, but I have no idea how good he is.

4. Strong safety. Daniel Sorensen and Ron Parker (who I learned has just been let go) showed flashes of brilliance and have been hard-working players, but they're undersized and their weaknesses have been exploited. If we can pick up a good one in the draft that would be ideal.

5. Middle linebacker. Never have I lost the desire to have a Ray Lewis-type in the middle of the defense. One of Brett Veach's first major moves last year was picking up Reggie Ragland, and the way Ragland played it has looked really good. Derrick Johnson is gone, however, so we really need someone to fill that spot. But then, recent news: We signed Anthony Hitchens, so this need is as good as fully addressed.

6. Offensive guard. We really could use shoring up the offensive line -- it played well at times but quicker stronger D-lines beat them down far too often. Is Parker Ehinger the answer here? I'm hoping so, then we don't have to burn a pick here and can use it for those defensive needs.

7. Defensive end. Another hole that desperately needs to be filled, but not high on this list because we're all hoping last year's high draft pick Tanoh Kpassagnon can take great strides to shore up the edge there. I know they may be trying to turn him into that coveted pass rusher to complement Justin Houston, but we'll see.

A lot of this is mitigated should we see true development in players like WR Jesu Chesson and LB Ukeme Eligwe, as well as healthy seasons from Eric Berry and Chris Conley.

And with free agency always wild and woolly and the draft progression always unpredictable, all of this is in flux. There will always be some surprise in player movement -- we've already been stunned by the Peters deal, yet thrilled when Veach promptly pulled the trigger on the very necessary Alex Smith deal. Which players will be let go for cap reasons, and which ones can we then pick up?

I know I've droned on and on about this tension between how much Hunt has devastated the Chiefs in light of how much I'm (like you!) eager to see what Veach and Reid and Mahomes and every one else out there can do to win lots and lots of games (in the postseason too!) Out of that I've realized that much of the NFL/free agency/competitive equivocation stuff results in the Chiefs confronting pretty much the same financial arrangements as any other team. Draft constraints and free agency rules mean monetary offers are all about exactly the same. A player coveted by the Chiefs but also the Rams Bengals Eagles and Colts will be tendered deals that are just not a whole lot different. Yes some teams have more of a desperate need to fill one hole or another, but if five teams are seeking the same player I think we can assume they all have the same need to fill that hole and because of that are all still bound to make relatively similar offers.

My point is precisely this:

The player must then be thinking, what is it about this particular organization that would make me want to join it?

This then is the deciding factor, not the money. The money will be there, and it will be a few million dollars. The critical factor is that instead this is first and foremost in a player's mind -- and yes it is a WOW kind of truth --

Does this team I'm considering have the character and constitution and commitment to excellence that I want to be associated with?

Thing is, does any team not want to win? Of course not! The real question is, does any given team have the true genuine capacity to make that happen? This is what results in the best of the available players going to a team to the extent they have a say in that. Furthermore -- for our purposes, of course -- to what extent do players-who-could-be-Chiefs see us as that particular suitor worthy of that commitment? The only way that happens is if he genuinely likes the people, particularly those at the top.

Brett. Andy. Yes, even Pat Mahomes.

And definitely Clark Hunt.

This is what demonstrates the Chiefs are a team with the got-it. And with what Veach has been able to accomplish so far he is showing he really does want got-it guys on the field. The compilation of all of that is what goes a long way to overcoming Hunt. These are the things that make up Chiefs greatness.

Presently we're just getting the details of the latest two big deals. I did, yes, in complete violation of my robust sports celibacy I did look at what was going on with these, they are that significant. Watkins is averaging $16 million a year, Hitchens $9 mil. This has sparked all kinds of talk about what it all means.

Is my point just now about the money not really being a factor now invalid? These are huge monetary deals. The idea is that other players considering themselves the equal of Watkins and Hitchens are now going to demand as much, and the obvious implication is the Chiefs -- those ding-dongs -- have just made it harder for other teams to sign players.

Yes, in light of my concerns about the disadvantages of the smaller market Chiefs, I do believe we had to overpay for Watkins and Hitchens. This is disconcerting because as I said earlier I'd like to think they decided for the Chiefs because of the Chiefs. I don't think "the Kansas City Chiefs" was not a factor -- I mean Watkins had to salivate a bit about being a key cog in this offense, with this new cannon-armed quarterback we have. Bottom line, however, is that we had to up the ante to get 'em signed and sealed.

On the other hand, could this just as easily be an instance when Veach just managed the cap really really well. The Chiefs started with little cap space, but Veach actually maneuvered himself into a decent position and he shrewdly pounced as he could. Highly paid Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali were destined to be let go, so there's cap savings. We'd earlier traded away Alex Smith and all his money, we just let Ron Parker go, and Zach Fulton is going to Houston, Albert Wilson to Miami. There're tons of cap savings there. I really don't know all the arcane ins-and-outs of how it all breaks down so I can't say what happened to make it happen, that's Brett's job.

It may just be the case that Veach was being an extraordinarily insightful, splendidly dexterous, and brazenly courageous manager of a professional football franchise. In fact among the remarks shared across the cyberworld yesterday was that Veach was doing his damn job and doing it well. In a sense he'd even pulled off quite a coup, because not only did the Cowboys want to keep Hitchens but were vigorously pursuing Watkins. Think about that, the podunk Midwest town's team schooled the highest valued franchise in North American professional sports.

Damn straight Veach is gettin' it done. Too sweet.

Furthermore it is obvious that, on paper at least, this is one friggin' potent offense, a quite pronounced thread in the commentary. Veach is paying attention, he knows what takes to get the Chiefs to the next level. Some pundits were even talking about all of this playing out with the Chiefs future in mind. It is not just that these key skill players are young and will have time to work together through the next several years, but Veach is showing he's ingeniously mastering the things he must labor through regarding all the arcane NFL constraints in order to keep the Chiefs competitive through those years.

These are truly exciting times for the Chiefs Kingdom. It has been good to blab a bit about it all here, and there will certainly be more to come -- OTA's coming soon, draft in April, more free agents signings shortly after that, camp starting in July. This post has gone for some time, however, but the events of this week have been pretty major for obvious reasons. There are a few more things I'd like to add, things related to the more meaningfully consequential, what is "beyond the Kingdom" if you will. Just a few more items but I just can't get them in here. One last post next week!
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(Episode VII) (Quarterback and Wide Receivers Projects Revisited)
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