I'm going to share with you these thoughts in three ways, first, the top three things we have absolutely no worries about -- we've got these nailed. We'll be beast with these things. Second, what I do worry about, and third, what we should be worried about but I think we shouldn't be so worried. They are ranked in order of severity, commensurate explanations accompany as usual.
No worries at all
1. Our punting unit. Yeah, I know, how goofy is that. That's our greatest strength? But you know, it really is. It seems like it is such a minor part of the game, but do you realize how well the Chiefs command field position throughout a game because we have Dustin Colquitt as our punter and Dave Toub as the special teams coach? It really isn't even funny.
Yes, this was a bit better in '13 than last year, but we can still dominate in this area with Colquitt. I really believe the guy should end up in the Hall of Fame, I am not exaggerating. The Hall is miserable at recognizing punters -- I was shocked when I heard a few years ago that Ray Guy was the first punter elected. Well, here comes Dustin Colquitt.
In this year's exhibition game against Seattle, Colquitt punted one ball that landed at the -- not kidding you -- one-yard line, and -- here's the amazing part -- it bounced straight up and was summarily downed right there with the most minimal effort a cover team could expend. And you know? He is so good at it he does stuff like that regularly. I'm pretty sure I saw some stat during some game last year that showed he's the leader in punts downed inside the 5, something like that.
2. Our pass defense -- pass rush and defensive backfield. These two units together formed the best pass defense in the entire NFL last year. They did not allow a single 300-yard passing game all season. Dee Ford joins Justin Houston and Tamba Hali to make for a genuine triple threat. If Hali slips a bit because of his age, Ford is right there to take over, and all I hear about is his first step being very "Derrick Thomas-like". I'll take that.
My slight concern here is the injury to Dontari Poe. He's so good at occupying linemen to allow those speed rush guys to command the edge. Will his absence for a month (hopefully only that) be a factor early?
Sean Smith missing a few games is a concern, but our cover guys are terrific. And at safety, dang, Eric Berry and Tyvon Branch are the second string guys. Berry surely is there just to make sure he's good to go physically after his miraculous recovery from cancer this year. That he's back at all is just fine with me.
My one other very small concern is in our ability to squeeze those interceptions. The number of times balls banged around and out of a given D-back's hands last year was beyond aggravating. I think I saw on some preseason broadcast that last year the Chiefs had a miserable turnover-getting number of some kind. Yeah, I get that. Again, much of rectifying that is finishing the stand. If we don't make those picks, our stellar pass defense isn't much if the needed picks are required to win games.
3. Our running game. What else can be said except "Jamaal Charles." He appears just as fit and ready to zip up the field as always. Knile Davis is a splendid back-up, but I'm still concerned about his ability to make things happen at the line of scrimmage once he gets the handoff. Charcandrick West showed he could give Knile a challenge as the No. 2 guy.
Then there is DAT, De'Anthony Thomas, and if Andy Reid continues to be at least modestly imaginative there's no telling how much DAT could impact a game.
May have worries, let's be honest
1. Our offensive line. On the one hand there are some things that are very positive. First, John Dorsey knew about the woeful performance of the O-line last year, clearly the team's greatest weakness. He went and got Ben Grubbs and Paul Fanaika, with Grubbs being the key acquisition by far. He also drafted Mitch Morse to play center, and he's won the job playing admirably so far. Second, Andy Reid is renowned for his work with the offensive line, so it is good we can put this unit in his hands and trust he'll make it work.
Okay, here're the scary things. First, how can there be any question marks when you have the first No. 1 overall pick in the draft a couple years ago at left tackle? Now yeah, Eric Fisher needed time to adjust and learn and all that, agreed, and yes he has suffered a number of injuries -- this year in preseason he suffered a sprained ankle. Will that hobble him? We'll see. Second, and this is the major one, the offensive line must work as a unit, they must gel and flow and instinctively react in a split-second, and the best units have been doing it for a while. Again, there is Andy Reid in there, whew, just hoping he can make that all happen with a bit more haste. Losing Jeff Allen to injury doesn't help in that we are in that quasi-scrambling mode to find exactly the right mix in all this.
2. Our quarterback. Yes, I will emphasize again that I am not on the anti-Alex Smith bandwagon. I know some Chiefs fans are. I still think Smith's intelligence, versatility, mobility, and raw skill can get us to the promised land. But I will confess that Smith absolutely needs the O-line to provide him with exceptional pass protection, because if it is merely adequate protection, Smith ditches his progressions far too soon.
Ever notice that with still a good split-second left to throw the ball at that precise instance when that receiver is going to consummate the pattern, Smith bails and starts looking around for ways to escape the pocket? Smith is an extraordinary scrambler and broken play adjuster, he really is. He is even frequently commended for his conservative play that is beneficial: instead of throwing a pick he tosses the ball away or even picks up a few yards with a run.
The problem with this is obvious. He isn't letting the receivers make the plays they must for an NFL team to succeed. Remember, this is a passing oriented league, and for centuries the Chiefs have struggled to have quarterbacks and receivers par excellence -- or even close.
Now we all know this could be academic if the new receivers we got will provide Smith the confidence he needs to make things happen. So yeah, we do need a combination of fine O-line play and a fine measure of Smith courage to see this happen. Will it? We'll just have to see.
3. Our kicker. Sorry, but I'm just worried about this idiotic new rule about kicking extra points from 33 yards away. Purely idiotic. There was no reason at all to change it, who gives a rat's nard about them being automatic? But ohhh! Whoaaa! We have to be more entertaining now, don't we! We have to make it more dramatic don't we!
Errgh. All it means is that the Chiefs may lose a critical critical critical game 17-16 all because they decided to screw us with this stupid new twist.
I'm fine with Cairos Santos, really, he's been fine, but I heard he did miss an extra point attempt in the preseason. I confess I did watch some of those exhibition games, but I missed that part of that one. Probably a good thing. I am worried about it.
What we should be worried about, but I'm not
1. Injuries. Needless to say this is always the number one worry for anyone. Last year losing people like Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito so early really cost us. We were great against the pass but teams could run against us and in a few games, even just a few, that was the difference maker. I mean, we win one more game last year and we make the playoffs.
This year we are very deep. We were the only team to go undefeated in the preseason, and the Chiefs always suck in preseason. I heard it was the first time since 1969 we went undefeated in exhibition play -- I really hope that's a good omen.
Sure they may say preseason is worthless, but if you do well then, it could be a true indicator of how deep your team is. With the second unit playing at a higher level, key injuries may not hurt as much.
This is quite a comforting thought going into the season.
2. Our run defense. The key here is Ramik Wilson. Yes, I know, we cannot expect him to morph into Ray Lewis overnight, but he played very well in preseason, and with Derrick Johnson back and healthy we should be fine in this area. Josh Mauga is a good guy back there, even though he last year he did get taken out too often. The team also likes their other draft pick D.J. Alexander, and let's hope he blossoms into a run-stopper too.
I will offer this very profound disclaimer here, and it is why it is in the "Why we could be justified in worrying about this" section of this post. It just flat-out has to do with Denver and its offensive line. You remember that the key reason we couldn't beat Denver last year wasn't as much because of Peyton Manning; it was because the Broncos offensive line beat the living crap out of our defense. Manning is, what, 108 years old? He'll keep playing well as long as that line is as good as it was against us. Manning doesn't really matter, their receiving core doesn't really matter, their backs don't matter -- it's their offensive line. If we don't find a way to solve them, we're toast. Now again, I don't follow anything about any other team, so I know nothing about the Broncos right now. I only know what happened last year. And I so remember what happened last year.
What helps here too is our stout pass defense. If our specialist coverage guys can be particularly beast, we can key a bit more on the run and frustrate the entire opponent's offense. I'm looking for good things in this area this year.
3. Our wide receivers. Obviously this should be a cause for worry because of how atrocious Chiefs receivers played last year. Everyone has heard to death the whole thing about how many thousands of touchdown passes our receivers did not catch last year.
Naturally this shouldn't be a concern because of the acquisition of Jeremy Maclin, who has shown he was well worth the investment. We also picked up a fine receiver, the steal of the draft to many, Chris Conley, who does need to gain experience but is still smart and fast. Tight end Travis Kelce is shaping into one of the best in the NFL and our backs are fine receivers also. We can also use DAT in so many different formations and so forth, that alone should make things wide open down field (please oh please oh please Alex Smith don't ditch your progressions!!!)
We actually struggled this year with which wide-outs to keep in trimming to 53! I did peek and it looks like we still cut Fred Williams, who did show fine ability to run routes and make tough catches. I'd like to think this is an indicator that the core guys we're putting out there are going to be pretty danged good.
There you go. There's the sincerely honest take on the Chiefs this year, with all its worries, warts, and wondrous winning ways, all.
Next week, we take on the Houston Texans, and I'm hoping recollections of how disastrous our season opener was last year against a miserable Titans team will be brightly front and center in the minds of the Chiefs this year.
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