Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Chiefs at Broncos - Week 17 - Record: 10-6 - Playoff Preview Post I

Pat Mahomes.

I really wanted to load up this post with a bunch of his plays in GIF but I don't want to mess with it. I just want to write. You can go here at Arrowhead Pride because they have the most comprehensive analysis of Chiefs stuff, and this link will get you right to a great piece about how Mahomes made Denver look silly. Too much fun.

Even though there is no way we'll see Mahomes again this year unless Alex Smith gets hurt, I do believe he will be a factor just being on the sidelines.

He is a factor right now for me looking forward to Chiefs greatness even if it doesn't come this Saturday.

Yep, I can't say there aren't a just a few Chiefs fans who feel the way I do. Do you?

Do you feel that seeing what we've got in Pat Mahomes and the years ahead with him at the helm will take a ton of the edge off a playoff loss should it happen this weekend? Sorry, I'm sorry Alex Smith and Andy Reid and my beloved present Chiefs, but no matter what happens in four days

I will be a happy Chiefs fan.

This supposedly meaningless game against Denver was truly one for the ages. In a very minor way I really wanted us to be heading into the postseason at 10-6 and not 9-7. That was cool.

The major thing was that Pat Mahomes became the first drafted and, we can say at least for the year under the tutelage of Andy Reid and Matt Nagy, developed quarterback to win a football game for the Chiefs in 30 years, 3 months, and 2 weeks -- 11,067 days.

Yes, this Chart Party does need an updating. Our latest win by a drafted quarterback can now be matched up with Madden 17-18! Finally!

The notable thing was the way he did it. You need look no further than the difference between our No. 2 guy, Mahomes, and our No. 3 guy, Tyler Bray. We had a comfortable 24-10 lead late when Mahomes went to the bench for his rest, and Bray promptly came in and mishandled the hand-off upon which Anthony Sherman fumbled for a stunning Broncos quick score.

After Denver tied it Mahomes had to come back in to lead the game-winning field goal drive, and it was a thing of beauty. That pass he threw to Demarcus Robinson -- damn. Here's what's so goofy. I'd seen some Chiefs pundit mention we all know Mahomes can do things other good quarterbacks couldn't do, but he wasn't sure if he could do the things those quarterbacks can do.

Excuse me. Excuse me. That he can do those phenomenal things is already in him. and that's what we've been desperate for. It's there. We've got it. Done deal. Doing the basic things any decent quarterback can do? Please, that simply comes with being in there, and he'll get that. Okay Chiefs fans, who's worried about basic QB technique coming around for Mahomes? Anybody? Anybody?

Here's the even more amazing thing. The circumstances. Sunday he was playing in the mile-high atmosphere of Denver. He was facing one of the best defenses in the league -- the reason the Broncos were 5-11 was their offense stank up the place. He was also mostly playing with the Chiefs second-stringers -- for cryin'-out-loud his running back for taking the load off was Anthony Sherman. He was running for his life half the time because B-team linemen were playing huge minutes. Sheez, Mahomes made guys like Demarcus Robinson and Albert Wilson look like All-Pros! Wilson had 174 receiving yards. Are you paying attention?

Anybody? Anybody?

Now there's more on the Mahomes effect when it comes to Alex Smith, about whom I will close this post and feature prominently in my next one because really, it is about him for the rest of this season however long it goes. Before we get to that, on to the preview stuff. I'm going to start with the aggravating things, yes -- I want to be bravely authentic in this, I never pull punches in this endeavor. And because this post will go long, I'm just going to bullet items, as I usually do.

- How good Tennessee is and how well they match-up.

I'm just going to start with this one but I'm not going to say much about it except to send you here. This is a link to my post about last year's game against them, quite aggravating because we lost by letting them back into the game in a number of stupid ways. Yeah, sounds like a typical Chiefs playoff game.

The point is I really don't know anything about the Titans this year and won't be looking at any of it before Saturday. Could they be really well matched up against the Chiefs? Sure. I do know they have a fantastic quarterback in Marcus Mariota, and yes I imagine they still have Ryan Succop as their kicker. How we play them depends a lot on the last item I address here in this post, that's later.

- Our red zone failures

This seems to be a very not-so-good thing about the Chiefs, and sure enough every time we get into the red zone the television bleats some stat about us being 47th in the league in red zone TD proficiency, and then I shake my head yet again when we have to settle for a field goal.

But I got to thinking, are we that much worse than any other team? I don't look at any stats or rankings, but I think they said in a broadcast sometime back that the Chiefs are a pretty high-scoring team. And when I peek at other scores, just looking at the scores, a lot of them are 17-16 type deals.

How many times do other teams get into the red zone and settle for field goals? I'd say there are quite a few. And here's another thing -- we've got Harrison Butker, who's probably been the most spectacular mid-season addition of any in the NFL this year. Did you see that Butker's game-winning field goal gave him 38 on the year, the 38 being the fifth most in NFL history?

That we are a high-scoring team even with all the field goals means we're getting into the red zone quite a bit, which is actually a very good thing.

- The disrespect of the NFL.

Sure enough, I knew it. I knew it long before the Chiefs would know who their opponent was. Before Sunday we had a chance to play either the Ravens, Bills, or Titans.

Look at those possible matchups. Not a media darling major market team among them. And you know what that means.

We get the first game at 1:30 on Saturday.

Sure enough -- yep.

We had that game against the Texans two years ago. We had that game against the Colts four years ago. Seems to me we've been given that game often. It is simple.

The NFL will only give the primetime game to the teams with the most fans, notoriety, media market, etc. Sure enough the primetime game Saturday features a Los Angeles team (the Rams playing the Falcons).

Now this is actually a little thing, the scheduling, but it reveals a bigger thing, and that is how the Chiefs are respected on the field, or not-so respected as the case may be. I simply have to make another note about how the officiating has such a detrimental impact on the Chiefs and in some ways it is the most baneful aspect of being a Chiefs fan. Having not-playoff-winning undrafted quarterbacks for eons is nirvana in comparison to how the Chiefs are shafted in the playoffs because of the officiating. Don't think there is scientific evidence for this phenomena? Again, as I've suggested in this blog before, check out the book Scorecasting. You'll see it there very plainly.

While all the video reviewing stuff is fine -- going a long way in simply getting the play right -- officials can still get in the way of Chiefs success. The ways this happens are with the interpretive things they can do -- particularly with regards to holding calls and pass interference calls -- as well as the ridiculous rules the NFL has in place regarding two key things: how video reviews are processed and whether or not a player has made a catch.

How I'd love to go into instance after instance after instance in great detail, and if you've been watching NFL football for some time you already know exactly what I'm talking about. But here's one of note related to the Chiefs.

The left foot had already been clearly
put down in-bounds in the end zone
In the Dolphins game recently Tyreek Hill went up for a catch at the front corner of the end zone near the pylon, snatched the ball, held it, and as he fell snapped both his feet down in-bounds one after the other. Chiefs fans, I know you remember it.

Two officials along the sideline both ruled it incomplete. Apparently in their interpretation Hill did not get both feet in bounds, or perhaps they felt he didn't have firm possession of the ball. Now, during this particular review process the video footage was not the best there has been, I don't know why but the angles and clarity were simply not as good as you usually get for these reviews.

Truth is, it was still good enough. As the footage on the big screen was shown at Arrowhead, the crowd there was roaring their approval of a legitimate catch -- should be touchdown Chiefs. The announcers were claiming that it should be a touchdown, it seemed clear to them -- touchdown Chiefs, right?

Nope. The officials ruled that because the footage was juuust a little too fuzzy, they could not award the touchdown. The officials' call could not be reversed. We ended up kicking a field goal.

Now, this is all pretty well understood as exasperating as it is. Thems thuh rules, oh well. But here's what I'm thinking, here's the key: Why did the officials initially rule it incomplete to begin with? Why didn't they initially rule it a touchdown, and then when the video evidence proves inconclusive then they can justifiably let the play stand?

My point is this. Yes it is controversial, but hey, I just want to write as I see it: The officials can always make the call against the Chiefs first, and let video evidence reverse them if it undoubtedly does. But if it doesn't, then the weight of the officiating will be against the Chiefs much more often than not.

And please, I know it is painful, but how many times have you seen the officiating turn against the Chiefs in the playoffs? You know about all those times, you do. I know it is good to let these things go, move on, I got that -- I'll be fine thank you. But you can't deny it happens. If you read Scorecasting, you'll discover that the officials don't even have to know they're doing it -- it may be very subconscious, even though there are influences that do have an impact on the decisions they will make.

I don't know about you, but every time I'm in the middle of watching a live game, and play is stopped for some really close controversial officiating decision that needs to be made, I not only always expect it to go against the Chiefs, but most times it does. Do you experience that as a Chiefs fan? I can't believe I'm the only one. I'm actually waiting for the time when the referee is at least honest with us and announces, "The ruling does indeed favor the Chiefs, but because this is the Chiefs, we must rule against them. FOURTH DOWN!"

Once again I must make this important clarification. I never want a call to favor the Chiefs that doesn't. I JUST WANT THE RIGHT CALL TO BE MADE NO MATTER WHAT -- especially the ones that even in the barest of bare ways do favor the Chiefs and do so objectively transcendently teleologically in spite of poor eyesight or biased officiating or ding-dong NFL replay rules.

Ultimately this is what makes it really hard for me to get up for this game this Saturday. YET AGAIN I do so want the Chiefs to win, and I'm going to elucidate all the reasons they should win on Saturday -- I am thrilled beyond anything that they're in the postseason and we can all jump for joy all week long. I'm so with you!

But let's face it -- the Chiefs are up against it because the NFL and the media-powers-that-be are against them. Sure the Chiefs can overcome it, yes, and I'll be watching and cheering and reveling in the good things that happen. Really, if they do win it'll be an even greater achievement because of these idiotic things that add to our challenge.

- The 0-6 record and the luck of plays just working.

That 0-6 record thing is the Chiefs recent streak of losses in playoff games decided by a touchdown or less. I'm sure I've shared it before but I'll do it again. Here are the last six games the Chiefs have played in the postseason in which the final score had a margin of 7 points or fewer:

'16 Pit: 2 points
'15 NE: 7
'13 Ind: 1
'03 Ind: 7
'97 Den: 4
'95 Ind: 3

Not a single close playoff win in the bunch, not one. Last close playoff Chiefs win was 24 years ago.

The excruciating disappointment us Chiefs fans feel in the last minute or two of a playoff game when the other team scores to go ahead or we simply can't get it up to get one freekin' score (which has happened most times) is crushing -- over and over and over. We all know it. It is very discouraging. (Yes, I know, I'm supposed to put it behind me, yes, I know...)

Ultimately in all of these games you can see much of it is merely about just not having the luck of good plays working in our favor.

The Chiefs go out and run plays, plays they've always run before, plays that have worked wonderfully before, and for some reason in the playoffs they just don't go. Go, go play, work, go, get yardage, off with you then, run run catch catch, get points, go, go, and...

Pthfxxthxthx.

I've used the reference of some kind of time-space portal that the Chief go through once they get into the playoffs where their strengths dissipate and their weaknesses expand.

Is it really the case that the opponent has always been that much more prepared for the Chiefs than we have for them? Really? That many times? Are we just that unprepared that many times?

Well, preparation has a lot to do with working to see that the unlucky doesn't happen too often, and that relates to this final aspect.

- Will Andy Reid be organic and will Alex Smith be courageous?

These are really the keys to get our good plays to work for us and score us points and get us playoff wins. Both items refer simply to what each of these individuals will do when they've already got their game planning and game managing down, it's humming along fine, we're a well-oiled machine, and

Tennessee adjusts.

And then adjusts again. And then adjusts and adjusts and adjusts.

It seems as though most times we get beaten in a playoff game when we could've done something about it was when Andy Reid did not adjust for how the opponent prepared and played us, or Alex Smith did not improvise effectively enough to make up for how they were playing us.

We are so due for a good, hard-fought, closely-contested, well-played

PLAYOFF WIN.

We have had one in 48 years of NFL play. One. That was the game we won against the Steelers on Keith Cash' clutch blocked punt and Fred Jones' return, followed by Joe Montana's strike to Tim Barnett way back in the 1993 season.

Maybe we'll get one this year.

But if we don't.

Yeah. Still.

The Chiefs have a future for once.

Now, there is so much more to write about in a playoff preview. I have not touched on all the more enticing aspects that portend a Chiefs win on Saturday -- and yes, as despondency-laden as this post has been, there are some very good things about our team that I do want to get into, but I've been sitting here in this chair for a long time. I'm going to publish this, let you go over it, think about it, and then together we'll look at the fun Chiefs stuff.

That's the next post, coming soon!
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