Huh.
I would've believed it if this comprised all the games but his atrocious Pittsburgh, Dallas, New York, and Buffalo games. Hmm, I really wonder what his passer rating was excluding those ugly dogs? Must've been 285.9, I mean...
But really, on the season we've got 12 games that actually got Alex that rating, and we all know he was pretty dang good in those games -- again enough to win him the passing title.
Buuut then we also know what happened in those other games. The ones he simply couldn't pass against a "Cover 2." The ones where he danced and flinched and flailed and booped and bopped about just not doing a thing to win games there for the taking. The ones where all of us were convinced he'd completely blown his load right smack in the middle of the season.
Before I get to the key thing about Alex with regards to Saturday, I'm going to touch a bit on the things we do actually have going for us. This will be a fully, richly, totally positive post, and I will work very very very hard to avoid repeating anything about my attitude going into this one. If you want to know about that check out my post just before this, as well as this one.
Otherwise, here is why the Chiefs will dominate this Saturday.
- Our playmakers.
Remember, Alex Smith had 4,000+ yards passing. Kareem Hunt had 1,000+ yards rushing -- and was indeed the NFL rushing champion. Travis Kelce had 1,000 yards receiving. Tyreek Hill had 1,000 yards receiving. The last team to do this, the 1981 San Diego Chargers, won a playoff game. With this kind of firepower it should be a cakewalk.
- Our ability to keep from turning over the football.
Somewhere I saw that we had a chance to set a record with fewest turnovers in a season. I think they said the record was 10, and at the time we had fewer than that. I don't know if we got that record and I'm not going to check -- I am working hard to maintain my sports celibacy because looking at too much of it just drives me crazy. I do know we had a couple on Sunday -- a Mahomes pick and the Sherman fumble -- but I don't know about any more.
Point is, as you look at it, it is true -- we have done great not giving up the football. Except for those crappy Alex Smith games when he threw some very bad picks, we've done great with that. The big story was how Kareem Hunt fumbled on his very first carry, then held the ball from then on torching New England and pretty much the rest of the league.
This particular skill is more important than getting turnovers, because if you're relying on getting turnovers you aren't doing well enough with the fundamentals to control the game with your football playing abilities. But if you're avoiding turnovers, then you can do what the Chiefs do well. Get nice sustained drives to constantly put points on the board.
- Our pass rush.
This item is more of a question mark, but it can be a strength simply because of the recent play of Chris Jones and the presence of Justin Houston. While Frank Zombo is not a real sack artist, he does play smart football and seals the edge well. It'd be nice if we can get good pressure on Marcus Mariota, but much of this depends on how well their offensive line plays.
I can't neglect to mention another critical component of a successful pass rush, and that is how our coverage guys do, and we're led by one of the best in Marcus Peters. Let's also hope that on the other side one of the best in previous years, Darrelle Revis, continues to play as well as he has for us.
- Our offensive line playing much better.
The O-line is protecting Alex Smith and getting Kareem Hunt running lanes much better since the disaster against Buffalo. Apparently they simplified things and it has made a world of difference. Indeed, when you have players like we have you really don't need to get cute.
Andy Reid handing the playcalling duty to Matt Nagy is related to this. When he did this for the New York Jets game our offense started to get humming again. I'm looking forward to seeing the Chiefs matriculate the ball down the field often on Saturday, and if we can get our patented good field position and chew up clock throughout the game -- keep Mariota off the field -- we should do fine.
- Being relatively healthy.
We did lose De'Anthony Thomas on Sunday, which I think is more costly than some may think. But with the exception of the losses of Eric Berry, Dee Ford, Mitch Morse, and Chris Conley, we've been okay, and in some of these areas we've covered well enough. Looking at each unit without these four:
Defensive backfield. This is the area that I consider we've felt it the most, particularly against the run. Fortunately Derrick Johnson is doing okay enough even though we all know he's lost a step, and Reggie Ragland just seems to get better as the year's gone on.
Pass rush. We are missing Dee Ford in that very important quarterback pressure department. I'd like to think Tamba Hali has some left in the tank, but he's not been playing as much. Again, we still do have that potent duo of Chris Jones and Justin Houston.
Offensive line. Some feel that Zach Fulton at center is actually making the line stronger. He is bigger than Morse and since he's played the Chiefs have been getting good O-line play. Earlier in the year when he spelled Morse he was doing poorly at getting those critical shotgun snaps in, that has improved greatly over these final four regular season games.
Receiver core. I believe Albert Wilson and Demarcus Robinson are capable enough to work opposite Tyreek Hill. We'll have to get some production from Jehu Chesson who does show promise and Marcus Kemp who was just called up from the practice squad.
We also have the advantage of essentially getting a day of rest with most of our starters not playing on Sunday.
- Alex Smith.
It all comes down to this.
Will Alex be a playoff winning quarterback.
I have to say again that there is tremendous precedent for this: His phenomenal game for the 49ers against New Orleans in that 2011 NFC Divisional Game. Oh that he'd channel that Alex Smith and again just take care of business and win the game.
Thing is, he did play really well for the Chiefs in the playoffs against Indianapolis and Houston, so he can do it. There is no reason he shouldn't. The question is one from my previous blog post: Will he be courageous enough to take those chances to do things he definitely can do?
Here's what I think it is the X-factor in all of this. I'd alluded to it at the beginning that that same previous post. Do you know what it is?
I think Mahomes can be a major factor by not even stepping on the field -- or even saying a word except "Wow I sure am learning a lot from you Alex Smith."
See, with Mahomes being there and being the future of Chiefs quarterbacking and being the player we all saw against the Broncos on Sunday, every Chiefs fans is slavering over what will happen next year, and the year after that, and the dozen years after that. YESSS we all want the Chiefs to romp on Saturday then again the weekend after against the Steelers or Patriots then again the weekend after that then again on Super Bowl Sunday.
Every ------- Chiefs fan ------- wants that.
If we lose again on Saturday, because of the promise of Pat Mahomes, it's okay.
My point is, this cannot be lost on Alex Smith.
He has to know this.
And because of that, Alex Smith has absolutely nothing to lose.
It seems to me that a lot of Alex Smith's failures come from a feeling that the entire Chiefs Kingdom rests on his shoulders. What a burden! I'd be nervous too if I felt that way.
Now Alex Smith can let fly and be really good, with nothing to lose and everything to gain. He knows what Chiefs fans are thinking, and he knows Chiefs fans do appreciate how hard he's worked and how good he's played for the Chiefs. He also knows he has everything to play for, not just a Super Bowl championship but for his own future, and whether it is still another year with the Chiefs or somewhere else he will be in great shape.
This Saturday look for Alex Smith to just play fun football.
The great thing is that all of us in the Chiefs Kingdom can just enjoy good Chiefs things no matter what happens. We're in the postseason for the fourth time in five years, with a team that has truly captured our hearts and drawn the attention of everyone watching pro football, deservedly so -- how great is that.
Next post, game day!
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