Monday, January 03, 2022

Let's Go Over the Stark Reality of the "Scorecasting" Factor AGAIN, Shall We?

A couple weeks ago I happened to come across a list of the odds of later good things happening for NFL teams at that point. I believe it was a 538 generated list, you know, they rank the teams by what they think are the possibilities they'll win later in the playoffs or win the Super Bowl or whatever. Those teams, in order:

Chiefs, Packers, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Patriots.

Those were the top five, all with far higher percentage probabilities than any of the others. Yes, down the list were the Colts, Rams, Cardinals, Titans, and the Bills were there too, but they were not ranked as highly as these. I'm also pretty sure that was the order of the top five, but I do know they had the Chiefs at the top.

So, ahem, there were the top five, there, from couple weeks ago.

What strikes you about that list? Or rather, in the delightful words in the Sesame Street ditty, "One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong!..."

Yep. The Chiefs.

You have to remember a truth above all truths related to the NFL. This truth is inviolate, it has been veritable through the ages. It is this.

The NFL loathe having the Chiefs succeed. They are a podunk-town Midwest small-market team with a name that evokes politically incorrectness with its ugly appropriation of Native American cultural motifs. They are so not the glamour big-market media-darling money-generators as those other teams. 

I am convinced that when Brett Veach (yes I know John Dorsey was GM at the time) pulled of the coup of landing Patrick Mahomes the NFL powers-that-be were sweating bullets. When he turned out to be as amazing as Veach thought they started really pulling their hair out.

When I saw the list I couldn't help but think, yeah, uh-huh, there it is. A Patriots-Buccaneers Super Bowl matchup? Brady-vs-Belichick? A dream event for the ages. A Cowboys-Patriots Super Bowl? Just as good -- those two are the premiere franchises in American sports. Any team playing the storied Packers with its controversial but compelling quarterback Aaron Rodgers would be terrific as well --

As long as they aren't playing the Chiefs.

Don't get me wrong, there're a dozen other teams the NFL doesn't want to see in any postseason action either, so I'm not trying to make the Chiefs into some uniquely victimized pariah for extra sympathy points.

But I am saying that the Scorecasting factor does demonstrate that the NFL is going to do what it can to make sure that a regularly dominant team like the Chiefs ("Oh how we hate that Brett Veach for making them the way they are!...") gets knocked down a notch or two often enough.

Witness yesterday's game against the Bengals. It was horrifically officiated. The Chiefs were coasting on their way to clobbering that poor team when the officials took over. Yes, it can be said that Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo did not have their most shining coaching moments in the 2nd half. A lot of people will bleat the typical and ridiculous things like refs don't affect games or it all evens out or if the Chiefs did x, y, or z none of the poor officiating would matter. 

Bullshit.

I do agree Veach et al have had to go all out and work harder than any other team to build and sustain the Chiefs excellence because they've got to be that much better to overcome the NFL disadvantage. I've always made that point and all Chiefs Kingdom dwellers should be overjoyed that we've been so successful under Andy Reid all these years. 

But the Scorecasting factor cannot be ignored, and again it was exposed in all its glory in yesterday's game. That factor is simply this:

That the team the powers-that-be want to win always has an advantage simply by virtue of officials making calls that benefit the favored team. The officials don't even necessarily have to be aware of what they are doing, but they are doing it because in the back of their minds they know one team should have a slight advantage over the other and they will make calls, even if inadvertently or unwittingly, to make sure that advantage is realized. Often this takes the form of a home team advantage, which understandably comes from the obvious favoritism a home team must be given in order to ensure enough locals attend the games.

One evidence of this weight against the Chiefs is the NFL's refusal to put original play-calling officials in the booth with monitors in order to get calls correct. I've been lobbying for this for years, and after watching yesterday's debacle it appears it simply has not gotten much better. They still have coaches challenges -- still stupid; they review all touchdowns and turnovers and everything within two minutes I believe -- a little better; and I've noticed they'll occasionally have a "New York" review -- what's with that? That sounds promising but it seems to be very sporadic and indiscriminate.

Here's the worst of it all that they still allow: There are some plays that are "unreviewable."

That's what makes it all so aggravating. 

Indeed that's where the refs are "free to interpret" things and how the Chiefs were hammered yesterday.

No, what needs to happen is, first, make everything reviewable. Everything. To put some things off limits is asinine, period. That things like defensive holds and pass interferences are challenging to call doesn't change this -- sorry, but yesterday the Chiefs were called for holds and PIs they did not commit while the Bengals were not called for the ones they did. Everybody saw it and knows it, and for the NFL or its sycophantic rubes in the media to pretend those things didn't happened just makes it worse.

Get those extra guys, in the booth, with original play-calling privileges. Then we'll all be convinced you actually care about making things right and true and fair -- because, really, let's face it. They know we're all watching what they're watching, and they have absolutely no excuse for not getting the call right.

For instance when a Chiefs D-back plainly does not commit a penalty against a receiver but a flag is thrown, they guy in the booth who sees it simply needs to call down on the field to let the mistaken official know, "Sorry, dude, but you missed it. I know how you could have thought he did, but he really didn't. No penalty." This is not rocket science. Get the call right.

When the Bengals defender mugs our guy, yepp: guy with the monitor watching it in the booth chimes in. Call down to the field, "Hey, you're not paying attention. That's no crime, you have a lot on your plate there on-the-field dude, but I am paying attention. And you need to stop play and assess penalty yardage there. There you go. Good, thanks."

Get the call right.

GET THE CALL RIGHT. That's all we ask for. 

In conclusion, hate to say it, hate to end this on a downer, and it doesn't even have to do with whether or not the NFL will do anything about this officiating thing, but the fact is the NFL will never stop despising the Chiefs. They just won't, for all the reasons mentioned as benighted as they are. I'd mentioned this when I'd written about the NFL's (and much of the rest of the world's) insanely destructive Covid protocol pablum, but I very much appreciated our one wonderful amazingly wonderful Super Bowl title from a couple years ago much because I believe it may very well be the only one we get. It was quite glorious, however, in many ways because we beat the system. We did it. They can loathe us with all their guts but we still got that trophy.

I hope I'm very wrong about it being the only one, of course! I'm always rooting with all my heart for Chiefs Super Bowl after Chiefs Super Bowl. 

But, yeah...

There's that stark reality...

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